What follows is a complilation of a Twitter thread I published on Sept 22. It represents my thinking about what we should and should not be doing regarding covid at this time. It is not completely comprehensive - for example it says nothing about early treatment for covid - and that is because I have only included items where I have enough personal conviction to put forward an opinion. I hope this is interesting and useful for you.
In case you were wondering, I do not have any specialized training or pre-covid knowledge of epidemiology, virology, etc. But the decisions around covid are not just for people with one particular and narrow area of expertise. They have consequences that are far ranging and require broad perspective and judgement. So I think all of us can and should think as deeply as we can about these matters. More on that later.
What I Think We Should Do
People who have had covid should live completely normal lives. Their risk from covid is tiny. They won’t spread covid either, so it is very safe to be around them. The evidence on this is very, very clear. In many areas this applies to the majority of the population, so it is an enormously important point.
Children should live completely normal lives. Their risk has always been minimal vs. other risks they face in life. The price they pay from interventions is very high.
Children should not be vaccinated. The risks from the vaccines are greater than the risk reduction from being vaccinated.
All schools, right up through university, should operate normally. The risks here are minimal.
Elderly and otherwise at risk people who have not yet had covid should generally be vaccinated. For them the risk/reward of getting vaccinated is positive.
No one should be told to wear masks. For the general population they are useless against covid. If someone wants to wear them anyway, have at it.
For people older than children but younger than the elderly, vaccines are a judgement call. The risk/reward balance can be shifted easily in one direction or another by your individual circumstances. Younger men, go with J&J. Younger women, go with one of the mRNAs.
Vaccines should not be mandated by anyone, anywhere. They do not meaningfully reduce infection or transmission. There is therefore no logical basis for a mandate. Vaxxes may protect you, but your vax won’t protect anyone else.
Lockdowns should never have happened for covid, and they should never happen again. Their benefits are minimal, and their costs are extreme.
Healthy people should not be tested, with possible exception of rare and very high risk situations.
People should get exercise, get outside, get plenty of vitamin D, eat well, and sleep well.
A concise version of evidence regarding immunity from natural infection can be found here:
Evidence regarding the risk reward ratio for children and vaxxes is here:
Thread on how we know masks don't work:
Regarding the protection against infection from the vaccines, England does a good job of tracking this. This chart shows more infections among vaxxed than unvaxxed in most age groups
Similar results from Qatar study, showing infection protection gone from vax in 20 weeks or so